Thoughts on the US victory over Canada

There are two ways to spin the game last night: Canada couldn't get it done against a less-talented team, made too many mistakes and didn't play hard enough; or, a plucky, aggressive and skilled US team outworked and outhustled the favoured Canadians to score a well-earned upset. So which is it? Well, as with many questions, the answer lies somewhere in between.

Canada, in a sense, lost this game. Martin Brodeur was spotty in goal, leading to calls for Roberto Luongo to assume the starter's job for tomorrow's game against Germany. Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger showed their age, particularly Pronger who was keyed on by the US forecheckers who shrewdly recognized his slowness and propensity for bad turnovers. However, Canada also threw over 40 shots at Ryan Miller, had an aggressive forecheck, and significantly outchanced the US.

Meanwhile, the US team certainly earned the victory. However, without the lights-out goaltending of Miller it might have been a different story. Similarly, the Americans benefited from a lucky deflection (first goal), Brodeur channeling Mark McGwire and failing to clear the zone (second goal) and auditioning for the Summer Olympics with a beautiful headfirst dive to pokecheck the puck away from Pronger, leading to the third US goal. So while the US was incredibly opportunistic, Canada gifted them many of the chances that turned into goals.

Overall, it was a hell of a hockey game with all the intensity of a Stanley Cup Finals match. Canada's road to the Gold Medal game just got a lot harder, as (assuming they handle Germany) that road will lead through Russia and then either Sweden or Slovakia. But this is where the tough get going - Canada is, I believe, the most top-to-bottom talented team in the tournament, and if they play to that level I believe we will see them facing off for Gold on Sunday.

The US, meanwhile, looks pretty good to at least medal, if not make the Gold Medal final. The US has to face the winner of Switzerland/Belarus, before likely facing Finland or the Czech Republic in the semi-finals. If the US medals it would be a very impressive for a new generation of US stars who are young, talented and still not in their prime. With (relative) youngsters like Patrick Kane, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown and the defensive tandem of Johnson & Johnson (Erik and Jack) coming into their own, the US has the potential to be a force on the world stage for years to come.

Here are some other random thoughts about last night:

• I thought Brodeur was brutal out there. He seemed to get overly excited about not being restricted in his ability to play the puck (international rules do not limit the goalie's abilityy to play the puck, unlike the NHL) and made some sketchy plays early on. The second goal was the result of Brodeur batting the puck out of midair instead of playing it safe and holding on to it. He also spent a lot of time flopping around on the ice instead of squaring up to the shooter and playing the angles. Brodeur is arguably the best goalie of all-time, but he doesn't look sharp right now, continuing his shoddy play in the run-up to the Games. If he had just played solidly, not even spectacularly, we probably would have seen overtime last night.

• Great to see Ryan Kesler stepping up for Team USA. He was out on the ice in key situations, played on the first powerplay unit and scored one of the most impressive empty net goals I have ever seen. Hopefully the Canucks get him signed long-term this summer, because this guy is a heart-and-soul guy who I wouldn't be shocked to see captain Team USA if NHLers play in 2014.

• Speaking of 2014, I feel that last night's game might go a ways towards convincing the NHL to let its players go to Sochi for the 2014 Winter Games. The upset win is getting (relatively) huge play in the US press, and America makes the Gold Medal game it will be a huge boost to the sport in the US. Hard to imagine the NHL spurning that domestic love when it comes to the next Olympics.
  

• Canada will be in trouble against Russia if they can't sort out their defense. Pronger had some brutal turnovers, Niedermayer was too often slow and out of position, and Boyle had problems with coverage. Don't be surprised to see Mike Babcock relying more and more on some of the young d-men on the team - so far Duncan Keith and Drew Doughty have been more impressive than their older, more decorated and more experienced teammates.
  

Who will have the best goaltending at the 2010 Olympics?

My friend Becky (R.A. DePalma in the Comments) emailed me about an ESPN article, suggesting that the USA might have superior goaltending to Canada at the 2010 Olympics. From Becky:

I just wanted to know what you think of this statement from a Scott Burnside article: (http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/story?columnist=burnside_scott&id=4369012) 10. Right now, who has the better goaltending lineup for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics? The Canadians likely will go with Martin Brodeur, who hasn't advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs since 2003, and Roberto Luongo, who imploded in the second round this past postseason and has never played in a conference finals game, let alone a Stanley Cup finals matchup. The Americans will go with Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas and Ryan Miller, who has backstopped the Buffalo Sabres to two berths in the Eastern Conference finals since the end of the lockout. Just asking. I wanted to post the question of what do people think about this on your blog... I think that it is foolish to say that Thomas and Miller are better than Luongo and Brodeur just because they have had more post-season success. Was it Luongo who imploded or the Canucks defense? Do we possibly think that the Canadian defense will be the same? And what illusion is it that Olympic hockey is between the USA and Canada. There are many other countries contending for that championship.

So, as Becky asks, what are your thoughts about goaltending for Canada, the US or any other team? Feel free to join the conversation in the comments sections.

Personally, I think Canada has the deepest selection, but that at the tournament many other countries have great goalies who can step up and lead a charge if they get hot. Here's my breakdown of the netminding situation for some of the countries in the tournament:

Canada - I don't think you can go wrong with either Brodeur or Luongo. I know some people (including Scott Burnside) are worried about the relative lack of playoff success by the two goalies in the past few seasons. However, anyone who is championing Cam Ward over these two should remember that he didn't exactly light it up in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Penguins: the Pens outscored the Hurricanes 20-9 in four games (a GAA of 5.00 for those of you scoring at home). By comparison, the Canucks were outscored 23-19 in 6 games (a 3.83 GAA) by the Blackhawks in the Second Round. The two Finals goalies were both Canadian, but would you really feel comfortable with Chris Osgood or Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes in Vancouver? Yeah, me neither.

In the end, I think one of Luongo or Brodeur will seize the moment and be The Guy for Canada - and I think either of them will do a lights-out job of trying to push their team to Gold Medal glory.

United States - I think Ryan Miller is a very good goalie, but I wouldn't put him in the same category as Luongo, Broduer, Henrik Lundqvist or Evgeni Nabokov. Still, if he can get hot or if Tim Thomas can continue his remarkable run from the past season, then the US might become a Cinderella in this tournament.

However, I don't think Burnside's insinuation that the US has superior goaltending to Canada because Thomas won the Vezina and Miller helped the Sabres to two Eastern Conference Finals carries any water. Brodeur won the previous two Vezinas to Thomas (narrowly beating out Luongo in 2006-07, a season in which Luongo was also runner-up for the Hart and Pearson Trophies). And if you're going to claim that 2006-07 was too long ago to have relevance to this deabte, then check out the last time Miller played in the Conference Finals. Oh yeah, it was also the last time the Sabres made the playoffs.

Russia - Russia is pretty solid in net, thanks to Evgeni Nabokov. If he falters, youngster Semyon Varlamov proved in the playoffs that he can play at a high level for at least a short period of time. And don't count out Nikolai Khabibulin, who will be 37 by the time the Games begin. While many are slagging the Oilers for signing the 'Bulin Wall, he did record the third highest GAA in the league last season and helped the Blackhawks to the Western Conference Final - no mean feat. Khabibulin wasn't invited to the Russian orientation camp, but I would imagine that a strong start to the NHL season would put him in contention.

Sweden - Henrik Lundqvist, who helped Sweden capture the Gold Medal in 2006, is one of the best goalies in the league. As long as he's healthy, the Swedes will be a favourite - along with Russia and Canada - in 2010.

Finland - Finland is a bit of a goaltending factory, so the team is guaranteed to have solid netminding. Unfortunately the rest of the Finns' line-up is not as strong, but with the likes of Niklas Backstrom, Miikka Kiprusoff, Pekka Rinne, Vesa Toskala, Kari Lehtonen and Antero Niittymaki to choose from, you have to assume they'll be solid between the pipes. Did you know that Finland's only Gold Medal ever in men's ice hockey came in the 1995 World Championships. In all the tournaments they've competed in (World Championships, World Cups, Canada Cups, Olympics) since 1939, they have just the one first place, nine second place and six third place finishes.

Czech Republic - The Czechs are not as strong between the pipes since the retirement of Dominik Hasek, but still have Tomas Vokoun to backstop them. If he falters, the fortunes of the Czech team could head south very quickly.

Goaltending isn't everything, but in a short tournament whose latter rounds are single-knockout it can prove to be the key to success. Anyone who remembers the 1996 World Cup, whose MVP was US goalie Mike Richter, can attest to the huge impact that top-notch goaltending can have on an already-talented roster.

Okay, those are my thoughts. What are yours? Who has the best goaltending heading into the 2010 Olympics?