Thoughts on the US victory over Canada

There are two ways to spin the game last night: Canada couldn't get it done against a less-talented team, made too many mistakes and didn't play hard enough; or, a plucky, aggressive and skilled US team outworked and outhustled the favoured Canadians to score a well-earned upset. So which is it? Well, as with many questions, the answer lies somewhere in between.

Canada, in a sense, lost this game. Martin Brodeur was spotty in goal, leading to calls for Roberto Luongo to assume the starter's job for tomorrow's game against Germany. Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger showed their age, particularly Pronger who was keyed on by the US forecheckers who shrewdly recognized his slowness and propensity for bad turnovers. However, Canada also threw over 40 shots at Ryan Miller, had an aggressive forecheck, and significantly outchanced the US.

Meanwhile, the US team certainly earned the victory. However, without the lights-out goaltending of Miller it might have been a different story. Similarly, the Americans benefited from a lucky deflection (first goal), Brodeur channeling Mark McGwire and failing to clear the zone (second goal) and auditioning for the Summer Olympics with a beautiful headfirst dive to pokecheck the puck away from Pronger, leading to the third US goal. So while the US was incredibly opportunistic, Canada gifted them many of the chances that turned into goals.

Overall, it was a hell of a hockey game with all the intensity of a Stanley Cup Finals match. Canada's road to the Gold Medal game just got a lot harder, as (assuming they handle Germany) that road will lead through Russia and then either Sweden or Slovakia. But this is where the tough get going - Canada is, I believe, the most top-to-bottom talented team in the tournament, and if they play to that level I believe we will see them facing off for Gold on Sunday.

The US, meanwhile, looks pretty good to at least medal, if not make the Gold Medal final. The US has to face the winner of Switzerland/Belarus, before likely facing Finland or the Czech Republic in the semi-finals. If the US medals it would be a very impressive for a new generation of US stars who are young, talented and still not in their prime. With (relative) youngsters like Patrick Kane, Ryan Kesler, Dustin Brown and the defensive tandem of Johnson & Johnson (Erik and Jack) coming into their own, the US has the potential to be a force on the world stage for years to come.

Here are some other random thoughts about last night:

• I thought Brodeur was brutal out there. He seemed to get overly excited about not being restricted in his ability to play the puck (international rules do not limit the goalie's abilityy to play the puck, unlike the NHL) and made some sketchy plays early on. The second goal was the result of Brodeur batting the puck out of midair instead of playing it safe and holding on to it. He also spent a lot of time flopping around on the ice instead of squaring up to the shooter and playing the angles. Brodeur is arguably the best goalie of all-time, but he doesn't look sharp right now, continuing his shoddy play in the run-up to the Games. If he had just played solidly, not even spectacularly, we probably would have seen overtime last night.

• Great to see Ryan Kesler stepping up for Team USA. He was out on the ice in key situations, played on the first powerplay unit and scored one of the most impressive empty net goals I have ever seen. Hopefully the Canucks get him signed long-term this summer, because this guy is a heart-and-soul guy who I wouldn't be shocked to see captain Team USA if NHLers play in 2014.

• Speaking of 2014, I feel that last night's game might go a ways towards convincing the NHL to let its players go to Sochi for the 2014 Winter Games. The upset win is getting (relatively) huge play in the US press, and America makes the Gold Medal game it will be a huge boost to the sport in the US. Hard to imagine the NHL spurning that domestic love when it comes to the next Olympics.
  

• Canada will be in trouble against Russia if they can't sort out their defense. Pronger had some brutal turnovers, Niedermayer was too often slow and out of position, and Boyle had problems with coverage. Don't be surprised to see Mike Babcock relying more and more on some of the young d-men on the team - so far Duncan Keith and Drew Doughty have been more impressive than their older, more decorated and more experienced teammates.
  

Canucks at the Olympics

In case you haven't been watching, a number of Vancouver Canucks have been starring for their national teams at the Olympics. In Canada's opener against Norway, Roberto Luongo was solid in a 15-save shutout win. Today, the Sedins chipped in with a combined three points to help Sweden overcome Belarus 4-2. And, last night, Pavol Demitra scored the shootout winner for Slovakia in their upset win over Russia:



Ryan Kesler (USA), Christian Ehrhoff (Germany) and Sami Salo (Finland) are also starring in the tournament, which has thus far seen some amazing hockey action. Canada vs. USA on Sunday should be a doozy.

Keep it up boys, you're doing your countries and the Canucks organization proud!

The Hangover

Ugh.

Yeah, it happened. And I am not happy about it.

I will have to write more about it I guess, but my off-the-cuff thoughts right now (it's 2:00 AM) about the series:

First off, I will give the 'Hawks credit - whenever it seemed like a normal team would quit, they just kept coming. I was entirely sick of the whole "they're so young they don't know any better" judgment that infused the Hockey Night broadcasts, but there is no doubting that the youthful enthusiasm of the 'Hawks carried them through the rough times and helped spark their remarkable comebacks.

I was not thrilled with the officiating in the past few games. Yes, I am biased in the Canucks favour. But it seemed to me that the Canucks had a number of marginal calls go against them, while at times the Blackhawks had to be one degree removed from bloody murder to get a penalty. I do not think that this was a conspiracy or anything like that, I just think that the Canucks got a bit ulucky in terms of what the refs did and didn't see/call.

The two-seconds-after-the-pass hit on Alex Edler in the first set up a 2-on-1 break for the 'Hawks that could have caused a goal, despite the blatant interference. Ryan Kesler got brutally laid out on a completely unnecessary hit that went uncalled, despite the fact that Kesler was down and bloodied for some time. When the Canucks responded with a similar hit by Rick Rypien they got whistled for it. Meanwhile, the "hooking" call on Shane O'Brien in the 3rd was marginal at best.

The Canucks did not lose because of the officiating. They lost because of what Chicago did when they had the chance. The 'Hawks turn the screw like no other team I've seen before. But as a fan, it was tough to see what seemed to be inconsistent officiating give the 'Hawks multiple opportunities to get back into games the Canucks might have otherwise closed out.

I am still steamed over the "hook" on Dustin Byfuglien in Game 2, which was in fact Byfuglien just losing his footing and smashing into Roberto Luongo, that gave the 'Hawks a powerplay with the Canucks up 2-1. A half-minute later the Canucks shot the puck over the glass, giving Chicago a 2-man advantage upon which they converted to tie a game they would go on to win.

Anyway, I am probably just bitter at this point. I don't feel that the Blackhawks did not deserve to win the series... but similarly, I do not feel that the Canucks deserved to lose it. And the way in which they lost was extremely frustrating.

These Chicago Blackhawks make me think of what I imagine the 1980s Edmonton Oilers were like. It doesn't matter the score, they just keep coming at you again and again, and the capitalize on any mistake you make. I don't know that they will be good enough to knock off Detroit (or maybe Anaheim) in the conference finals, but I do think that they are the most terrifying team left in the post-season. No lead is ever safe against this team.

So here's to the Canucks 08-09 Edition, a team that fit Prototype B of Canucks squads - lovable losers who overachieve (Prototype A is lovable losers who underachieve, but this team only comes around once or twice every decade).

If someone told me in September that the 'Nucks would make it to Game Six of the Round Two I would have seen that as a reasonable and respectable conclusion to the season for this version of the team. Unfortunately, expectations were raised due the Canucks fantastic last few months of the season and quick dispatch of St. Louis in Round One. But, if we can improve from here (ie. Gillis re-signs the Sedins, Luongo plays a brilliant and healthy season, and Cody Hodgson plays like Steve Yzerman Jr.) then who knows how next season will go? Right?

'Cause, well, "next season!" has been the only rallying cry I've ever known as a Canucks fan.

Canucks cap 'Leafs bashing week' by bashing the Leafs

It's been a fun week here at 'Nucks and Pucks, with some good banter in the comments section (I consider 1+ comment to be a popular post - look, it's a small-time blog, 'kay?) and some irate Facebook messages from friends. Tonight was, of course, the Main Event as the Canucks and Maple Leafs faced off at GM Place in front of a sellout crowd and a national TV audience on Hockey Night in Canada. The result speaks for itself:



Clearly the Canucks wiped the floor with the Leafs. After weathering an early storm, including the spectacular sequence in which Captain Luongo barred the door on a Leafs' 2-man advantage without a stick, the Canucks struck back. Kyle "Steve Sullivan" Wellwood struck back against the team that waived him by netting the first goal. From there the floodgates opened, and by the midway point of the second period the game was already 4-0. The Canucks went on auto-pilot the rest of the way, unfortunately surrendering two goals in the game's final 6:07 and allowing the Leafs to escape the West Coast with a modicum of respect.

Despite leaving the game with a pathetic .556 save percentage on the night, Vesa Toskala was not as bad as the stats suggest. Not that that it was exactly possible for him to be worse than that SVP suggests. But if you watch each Canucks goal, you'll see that he is truly culpable on only one of them. On the other three he was the victim of the Maple Leafs weak attempts at defense:

Goal #1: Wellwood was allowed to walk to the net thanks to some shoddy defensive coverage by Matt Stajan. He then tipped the puck top shelf, a tough one to stop.

Goal #2: Blame Toskala for this one. A brutal rebound was left on the doorstep for an opportunistic Ryan Kesler to fire home. Though it would've helped the Leafs', and Toskala's, cause if someone had taken the man in front.

Goal #3: Tomas Kaberle, I thought better of you. I know it was Willie "One Goal a Season" Mitchell, but seriously, you can't just mosey back into your zone like that.

Goal #4: Daniel Sedin scored this goal standing about 10 feet from the Leafs' net in the middle of a square of four Leafs "defenders." Just brutal defensive coverage.

Oh yeah, and Luke Schenn got filled by Rob Davidson. Actually, I think this fight is symbolic of the game: an early stumble by Vancouver was easily corrected by a number of devastating blows to the Leafs, whose late effort to take down the 'Nucks couldn't mask the fact that they got pummeled by a superior opponent. Enjoy!

'Nucks and Pucks' preseason prediction off to a roaring start

Regular readers, all six of them, will recall that I made three sets of preseason predictions (well, only sort of "preseason" in one case): order of finish in the Eastern and Western Conferences and Conference and Cup Finals/major award winners. So far they are looking as conclusive as Thomas Dewey's victory in the 1948 Presidential election.

The Flyers, my Eastern darlings, are entrenched in 15th spot in the conference - a place in which they clearly feel comfortable after the 06-07 season. The Dallas Stars, my choice not only to win their division but also the Stanley Cup (!), are kicking around at 12th in the conference.

And the Canucks, my heart-not-head favourite to win it all this year? They're a middling 10th in the West.

Fortunately for my ego the Red Wings are in second in the West, while the Canadiens (who I predicted to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals) are tied for second in points in the East.

Things are not much better on the individual awards front. I was apparently prescient to choose Alex from the Capitals to be among the league's best in scoring - too bad I picked Alex Ovechkin and not Alex Semin, as the latter has 2.5 times as many points as the former.

Marty Turco, who I picked to win the Vezina Trophy, is not off to a hot start and was pulled in yesterday's 5-0 loss to the Devils after some fairly brutal goaltending (start watching at 32 seconds for the worst of it):



Other predictions are looking slightly better: Stars rookie Fabian Brunnstrom has four goals in 5 games, a pace which would likely easily secure him the Calder. And Ryan Kesler's solid defensive play and point-per-game average would place the Canucks forward in good standing in Selke Trophy voting - assuming he can overcome the East Coast bias that potentially robbed Evgeni Nabokov of the Vezina Trophy last year.

Ultimately prognostocation is an inexact science - just ask the now-panicking bookies who gave 150:1 odds on the Tampa Devil Rays winning the World Series. But it's still fun both to make the predictions, and to look back and laugh when they're proven horribly incorrect.

So, while there is still a lot of time for my NHL preseason predictions to come true (after all we're not even through the first month of the season), it is still entertaining to assess the non-success of my forecasts thus far. Maybe I should become a weatherman. Or a bookie.

Some belated predictions for the 08-09 season

I realize that I never made some of the preseason predictions that I had intended to make. Therefore, please find my somewhat belated predictions for the 2008/09 season:

Stanley Cup Winner: Vancouver Canucks
President's Trophy: Vancouver Canucks
Art Ross Trophy: Daniel Sedin
Hart Trophy: Roberto Luongo
Vezina Trophy: Roberto Luongo
Norris Trophy: Mattias Ohlund
Lady Byng Trophy: Henrik Sedin
Selke Trophy: Ryan Kesler
Calder Trophy: Jannik Hansen

What's that? This list is horribly biased and unrealistic? Next you're going to tell me that the Blue Jays aren't going to win the World Series this year and that my stocks in Lehman Brothers aren't going to allow me to retire by 26 years old. But if you insist, I will aim for a Fox News-esque "fair and balanced" approach for this series of predictions for the current season:

Stanley Cup Finals: Dallas Stars defeat Montreal Canadiens in 6 games

Western Conference Finals: Dallas defeats Detroit Red Wings in 7 games
Eastern Conference Finals: Montreal beats Philadelphia Flyers in 6 games

President's Trophy: Detroit Red Wings

Art Ross Trophy: Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Hart Trophy: Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Vezina Trophy: Marty Turco, Dallas Stars
Norris Trophy: Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings
Lady Byng Trophy: Kyle Wellwood, Vancouver Canucks (just joking, despite his ridiculous dearth of PIM - but how do you predict this trophy anyway?)
Selke Trophy: Ryan Kesler, Vancouver Canucks (I'm sticking with this one!)
Calder Trophy: Fabian Brunnstrom, Dallas Stars
Jack Adams Trophy: I was going to say Denis Savard... so, um, how about Wayne Gretzky of the Phoenix Coyotes? It's not like he's won enough major hardware already.

First All-Star Team:
C - Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
LW - Alex Ovechkin. Washington Capitals
RW - Marian Hossa, Detroit Red Wings
D - Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings
D - Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins
G - Marty Turco, Dallas Stars