Revisiting my postseason predictions: Part I

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future." - Niels Bohr

"The groundhog is like most other prophets; it delivers its prediction and then disappears." - Bill Vaughn

These two quotations capture the spirit of this post. Firstly, that prediction is often more luck than science and thus frequently inaccurate. And secondly, unlike the groundhog, I am standing to face the music of my predictions for the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Yeah, I know the playoffs ended months ago, but it took me a while to get 'round to this. Sorry.

Part 1 will give a postmortem on the Rounds 1 and 2 predictions, and Part 2 will cover Round 3 and the Stanley Cup Final. As per my regular season prediction evaluations, I will use the following scale to evaluate my selections:

A - Nailed the pick exactly right
B - In the ballpark but not right on
C - A pretty misguided pick, but you can kind of understand why I made it
F - Epic fail

Round 1 - Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins (1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (8)
Predicted: Bruins in 5
Actual: Bruins in 4
Grade: A-
I thought the Habs would steal one, but the Bs ended the Canadiens Centennial Season on a low note.

Washington Capitals (2) vs. New York Rangers (7)
Predicted: Capital in 6
Actual: Capitals in 7
Grade: B+
I was close, but I did not give the Rangers enough credit for pushing the Caps to the wall, before they stormed back to take the series.

New Jersey Devils (3) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Predicted: Hurricanes in 6
Actual: Hurricanes in 7
Grade: A
I am giving myself an 'A' because the 'Canes were the underdog, although I thought they would finish off the Devils without going to Game 7.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5)
Predicted: Penguins in 7
Actual: Penguins in 6
Grade: B+
A great series, but not as close as I had expected.

Round 1 - Western Conference

San Jose Sharks (1) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8)
Predicted: Sharks in 6
Actual: Ducks in 6
Grade: F+
Not sure if that grade even exists. I did not think the Sharks would tank (wah-wah) in the First Round, however I did expect a lot from the Ducks. So it's a fail, but one with a + attached to it.

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (7)
Predicted: Blue Jackets in 7
Actual: Red Wings in 4
Grade: F-
As a counter to my F+, this is a resounding F-. I had a feeling one of the Sharks or Wings would get upset, but clearly made the wrong pick. How terrible a call was this? Well, let's see: I picked the Western Conference champions, who lost the Cup by one goal in Game 7, to lose in the First Round; and I picked the Blue Jackets to win the series, when in fact they failed to win a game. Brutal!

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. St. Louis Blues (6)
Predicted: Canucks in 4
Actual: Canucks in 4
Grade: A+
NAILED IT!!! For once in my life my optimism about the Canucks was not misplaced. Well, until the second round at least.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) vs. Calgary Flames (5)
Predicted: Blackhawks in 6
Actual: Blackhawks in 6
Grade: A
Another one dead on! Though less of an out-on-a-limb pick than a Canucks sweep. At the time, I was extremely happy with this result. Until the Canucks played the Blackhawks. Ugh.


Round 2 - Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins (1) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Predicted: Bruins in 6
Actual: Hurricanes in 7
Grade: C-
I am still not sure if I overestimated the Bruins or underestimated the Hurricanes. Either way, the 'Canes upset the Bs by taking the series in 7 games.

Washington Capitals (2) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4)
Predicted: Penguins in 6
Actual: Penguins in 7
Grade: B
This was a mind-blowingly entertaining series. I was right that the Pens would win, though I thought they would do so more handily than they did. I definitely underestimated the Capitals in this one.

Round 2 - Wetern Conference

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8)
Predicted: Red Wings in 7
Actual: Red Wings in 7
Grade: A
The at-the-time Cup champs showed resilience in overcoming the challenge from the Ducks. This was the third 7-game series of the Second Round.

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (4)
Predicted: Canucks in 5
Actual: Blackhawks in 6
Grade: F
Let's not talk about it, 'kay?

Coming soon: Part II of my playoff prediction postmortem.

Revisiting my pre-season predictions: Part I

Way back in the fall I made my predictions for the 2008-09 regular season. Predictions were made for the Eastern and Western Conferences, as well as for major award winners. Now that the season is over and the hardware handed out, it is time to look back in embarrassment at my preseason predictions. This is Part I in the series.

I will rank all my predictions them on a four-letter scale:

A - Nailed the pick exactly right
B - In the ballpark but not right on
C - A pretty misguided pick, but you can kind of understand why I made it
F - Epic fail

Eastern Conference

1st Place
Predicted: Philadelphia Flyers
Actual: Boston Bruins
Grade: C - Philly had a strong team, but finished 17 points behind the Bruins in 5th.

2nd Place
Predicted: Montreal Canadiens
Actual: Washington Capitals
Grade: F - Many observers expected big things from the Habs in their centenary season. I, unfortunately, was one of them. The Canadiens were a gong show from mid-season onwards, and barely made the playoffs by virtue of a tie-breaker with Florida.

3rd Place
Predicted: Washington Capitals
Actual: New Jersey Devils
Grade: B- - Washington managed to finish 2nd, bettering my expectations for them. Although I must admit that I picked them to finish 3rd only by virtue of winning their division:

"I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pens finish second to the Flyers for points - too bad the NHL's screwy division-seeding arrangement, AKA throwing the Southeast Division a frickin' bone, will deny them the second seed in the conference" ('Nucks and Pucks, September 13, 2009).

4th Place
Predicted: Pittsburgh Penguins
Actual: Pittsburgh Penguins
Grade: A- - Yes I nailed it, but see above quotation for my thoughts about the Penguins. Yes theytied for 4th, but they were nowhere close to finishing 2nd in points.

5th Place
Predicted: New Jersey Devils
Actual: Philadelphia Flyers
Grade: C+ - The Devils exceeded my expectations, winning the Atlantic Division and finishing 3rd in the conference.

6th Place
Predicted: Buffalo Sabres
Actual: Carolina Hurricanes
Grade: F - Oops.

7th Place
Predicted: New York Rangers
Actual: New York Rangers
Grade: A - The only thing preventing an A+ was that I referred to Wade Redden as "a defensive upgrade" when I should have said "useless player with a millstone of a contract."

8th Place
Predicted: Boston Bruins
Actual: Montreal Canadiens
Grade: F - So my 8th place team finished first, and my second place team finished 8th. Did not see Boston coming on so strong, but good on 'em they had a great season.

9th Place
Predicted: Ottawa Senators
Actual: Florida Panthers
Grade: A- - Yes Ottawa actually finished 11th, but the point is that I called them to miss the playoffs and continue their freefall away from respectability. And I think I nailed that one pretty much dead on!

10th Place
Predicted: Tampa Bay Lightning
Actual: Buffalo Sabres
Grade: C - Tampa was worse than I thought they would be. What can ya do?

11th Place
Predicted: Carolina Hurricanes
Actual: Ottawa Senators
Grade: F - Carolina not only made the playoffs as the number 6 seed, they shocked the hockey world by making it all the way to the Conference Finals.

12th Place
Predicted: Florida Panthers
Actual: Toronto Maple Leafs
Grade: C- - Florida surprised by making a strong push for the playoffs, ultimately falling just short.

13th Place
Predicted: New York Islanders
Actual: Atlanta Thrashers
Grade: C+ - The Isles finished last in the league.

14th Place
Predicted: Toronto Maple Leafs
Actual: Tampa Bay Lightning
Grade: C+ - Toronto was a little better than I expected. Just a little.

15th Place
Predicted: Atlanta Thrashers
Actual: New York Islanders
Grade: B- - Atlanta finished 13th. Trying to predict the bottom of the standings is a painful and inexact science.

Final Grades:

A: 1
A-: 2
B-: 2
C+: 3
C: 2
C-: 1
F: 4

Nazzy retiring?

Unconfirmed news came today that current NY Ranger, and all-time awesome Canuck, Markus Naslund may be hanging up the skates for good. You can read the TSN report for more details, or check out Puck Daddy for a detailed explanation of how Nazzy, in his usually classy way, put the team ahead of his own interests.

In short, the Rangers would have had to pay him $2 million if they bought out his contract, which was a likely scenario given the team's cap-crunch. By retiring Naslund forgoes the $2 million but saves the Rangers valuable cap space for next season and the one after. How many pro athletes would forego that kind of cash to avoid screwing over a team with which they had only spent one season?

It is sad that Naslund did not retire a Canuck, but no doubt he expected more from himself in his new start in New York. His numbers this season were decent, but not Naslund-like: 24 goals and 22 assists for 46 points in 82 games. This continues the downward trend since his brilliant 104-point campaign in 2002-03.

Naslund will go down as one of the greatest Canucks of all-time. He holds club records for goals and points, and was peer-voted to win the Lester B. Pearson Trophy in 2003. While he wasn't the same heart-and-soul type of player as Trevor Linden and Stan Smyl, he was nonetheless an excellent captain in his own quiet way - though the burden of the 'C' did seem to be wearing on him as the seasons dragged on.

I hope, and expect, that Naslund's number will one day be hanging alongside Smyl and Linden in the rafters of GM Place. We will have to wait for the official announcement before reflecting too much further on Naslund and his impact on the Canucks organization, but here's wishing Markus all the best with his future plans.

And I can't help but wonder, if he chooses to play a season in Sweden next year, if we might see Nazzy back on GM Place ice for one last hurrah with Team Sweden at the 2010 Olympics. I have a feeling that the applause would bring down the house.

Did The Hockey News rip me off? Nah, I guess not.

In advance of my Western Conference predictions, I would like to reflect on my predictions for the East which were posted on September 13. Adam Proteau is a respected hockey writer for The Hockey News, and one of my favourite hockey scribes. Is he also a reader of ’Nucks and Pucks and a shameless plagiarist? Almost certainly not. But I’m going to make the argument anyway.

Yesterday (September 25) Adam posted his weekly Screen Shots column, which included his predictions for the Eastern Conference standings in the upcoming season. Check out the article if you want to read his justifications for his choices, but I will list here his predicted order of finish with the ’Nucks and Pucks picks in brackets:

1. Philadelphia Flyers (Flyers)
2. Montreal Canadiens (Canadiens)
3. Washington Capitals (Capitals)
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (Penguins)
5. New Jersey Devils (Devils)
6. Boston Bruins (Sabres)
7. Tampa Bay Lightning (Rangers)
8. Buffalo Sabres (Bruins)
9. Ottawa Senators (Senators)
10. Florida Panthers (Lightning)
11. New York Rangers (Hurricanes)
12. Carolina Hurricanes (Panthers)
13. New York Islanders (Islanders)
14. Toronto Maple Leafs (Leafs)
15. Atlanta Thrashers (Thrashers)

Comparing Adam’s predictions with those made in this blog two weeks ago reveal some startling similarities: the top five finishers are identical; seven of the eight playoff teams are the same; Adam also likes the Sabres to return to the playoffs and the Senators to finish ninth in the conference; and the worst three teams are identical. Nine of Adam’s total picks are identical to those of ’Nucks and Pucks.

My first reaction was to think that this 60% correlation represents plagiarism on a grand scale. However, as I was about to call a lawyer, reason got the better of me. For starters, there are only fifteen Eastern teams and so there is bound to be some overlap in picks (everyone is going to pick the Leafs to finish at or near the bottom of the conference – duh!). Also, there is roughly a 99.9997% chance that Adam Proteau has never read, or even heard of, ’Nucks and Pucks.

So I put down the phone and took it as a flattery that one of my favourite writers thinks along similar lines as me. Because great minds think alike, right? Oh wait… I shouldn’t say that until I post my Western Conference predictions this weekend. If you want to check out Adam’s rankings they are posted here. I won’t give mine away just yet, but suffice it to say that there are only five identical picks and we only agree on six of the eight playoff teams. Can you guess one of the playoff teams we disagree about? I’ll give you a hint: one of my (now) least-favourite hockey writers picks them to finish 14th in the West.

Eastern Conference Predictions

THE TOP EIGHT

1. Philadelphia Flyers

Last year’s runner-up in the Battle of Pennsylvania looks good to take the conference this year. Marty Biron has established himself as a bona fide number one goalie - even if he does receive some fairly intense heckling from some fans. A talented forward corps includes studs such as Daniel Briere, Jeff Carter and Mike Richards. A healthy Simon Gagne and continued solid goaltending from Biron will push the Flyers to the top of the East.

2. Montreal Canadiens

It is the Canadiens 100^th Anniversary and the franchise is keen to cap it off by adding to it its amazing 24 Stanley Cup victories. The Habs brought in Alex Tanguay and lost Michael Ryder, which represents an upgrade. Big questions heading into the season include whether the enigmatic Alex Kovalev can replicate his impressive 07-08 campaign and if 21 year-old sophomore Carey Price can be a consistent starting goalie for a full season.

3. Washington Capitals

Alex Ovechkin and a decent supporting cast are enough to ensure that the Caps will take what is without a doubt the worst division in hockey – yet paradoxically one that has produced two of the last four Stanley Cup champions. Jose Theodore proved last season that he is just decent enough to drag a slightly above-average team into the playoffs and perhaps even to the second round.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

Sure they lost Marian Hossa to Detroit, and seemingly half of their roster to the Tampa Bay Ex-Pens, but this is still an excellent group of players that are all on the upswing of their careers. Barring injury, Sid the Kid should duke it out with Ovechkin for the Art Ross, while Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal and newcomer Miroslav Satan will provide excellent secondary scoring. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pens finish second to the Flyers for points - too bad the NHL's screwy division-seeding arrangement, AKA throwing the Southeast Division a frickin' bone, will deny them the second seed in the conference.

5. New Jersey Devils

Marty Brodeur will be his usual excellent self, and the addition of Brian Rolston will add punch to a forward group that includes some pretty solid offensive players.

6. Buffalo Sabres

I think that Buffalo is due to bounce back. While the Sabres struggled last season to cope with the loss of Chris Drury and Briere, they still possess a great deal of firepower upfront including Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek and Maxim Afinogenov. Ryan Miller is among the game’s best stoppers and the defense is solid if unspectacular. Remember, this is the team that won the President’s Trophy two seasons ago.

7. New York Rangers

A pretty solid offense - albeit sans Jaromir Jagr, who is now plying his trade in the brand new Kontinental Hockey League - combined with a defensive upgrade in Wade Redden and one of the league’s best keepers in Henrik Lundqvist should ensure that the Blueshirts make it back to the playoffs in 2008-09.

8. Boston Bruins

A healthy Patrice Bergeron will help solidify a decent group of forwards, which includes new acquisition/reclamation-project Michael Ryder. Goaltending prospect Tuukka Rask, AKA "the blue chip prospect the Leafs traded for Andrew Raycroft," looks to start in the AHL while Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez will duke it out for the starting job.

BOOKING THEIR TEE TIMES

9. Ottawa Senators

Yes, I am picking Ottawa to miss the playoffs. Sure they have arguably the best and most impressively YouTubed line in hockey, but they lost Wade Redden on the blue line and the tandem of Martin Gerber and Alex Auld between the pipes isn’t scaring anyone. Except maybe Sens fans. On the upside, when the Sens miss the playoffs, there will be no repetition of the most embarrassing pre-game intro in Stanley Cup playoff history.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning

If this was a list of most entertaining teams, the Lightning

would be battling the Penguins and Caps for top spot. Given the Bolts’ patchwork defense and questionable goaltending, they will be relying on a potentially lethal offense to win them games. Fans may need to check that Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay box score twice to realize that it’s not for a Steelers/Buccaneers game - don’t be shocked to see Tampa put up a touchdown on the scoreboard on a few occasions this year. One of many intriguing storylines in the TB soap opera that is the upcoming season involves coach-turned-broadcaster-turned-coach Barry “The Mullet” Melrose. Given the offensive orientation of his squad one can only assume that Melrose will apply the standard mullet-logic: business at the front, party at the back.

11. Carolina Hurricanes

Decent, but not good enough. How will Eric Staal respond to his new mega-contract? If he can recapture his 100-point form of a few years ago then this team might be good enough to scrape into the playoffs. I don’t see that happening.

12. Florida Panthers

Seven years out of the playoffs and counting – sorry Florida, you’re gonna have to keep waiting. The additions of Keith Ballard and Nick Boynton will help solidify the d-line, but the subsequent loss of Olli Jokinen leaves the offence pretty thin beyond the top line. As good as Tomas Vokoun is, you can’t help but wonder how this team would look with Roberto Luongo between the pipes. If Canucks fans want an idea of how their team would be without Luongo, the Panthers probably give a pretty fair indication.

13. New York Islanders

The Islanders should sign Anson Carter and continue to continue the trend of relying on ex-Oilers whose prime was 5-10 years ago for the bulk of the offense. A top line of Mike Comrie, Doug Weight and Bill Guerin doesn’t sound quite as imposing as it would have in 1999 or 2000.

14. Toronto Maple Leafs

A lot of things will need to go right for the Leafs to have a sniff of the playoffs. It’s not impossible, but it’s hard to imagine the Buds cobbling together a respectable season. Fans will have to find a new whipping boy now that Andrew Raycroft and his ’stache have moved on to Colorado.

15. Atlanta Thrashers

Can you name one forward on this team not named Ilya Kovalchuk? How about any of the defencemen? If not, you’re probably in the majority of hockey fans. It will be another long season for Thrashers fans.

Coming soon: Western Conference predictions