Revisiting my postseason predictions: Part I

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future." - Niels Bohr

"The groundhog is like most other prophets; it delivers its prediction and then disappears." - Bill Vaughn

These two quotations capture the spirit of this post. Firstly, that prediction is often more luck than science and thus frequently inaccurate. And secondly, unlike the groundhog, I am standing to face the music of my predictions for the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Yeah, I know the playoffs ended months ago, but it took me a while to get 'round to this. Sorry.

Part 1 will give a postmortem on the Rounds 1 and 2 predictions, and Part 2 will cover Round 3 and the Stanley Cup Final. As per my regular season prediction evaluations, I will use the following scale to evaluate my selections:

A - Nailed the pick exactly right
B - In the ballpark but not right on
C - A pretty misguided pick, but you can kind of understand why I made it
F - Epic fail

Round 1 - Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins (1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (8)
Predicted: Bruins in 5
Actual: Bruins in 4
Grade: A-
I thought the Habs would steal one, but the Bs ended the Canadiens Centennial Season on a low note.

Washington Capitals (2) vs. New York Rangers (7)
Predicted: Capital in 6
Actual: Capitals in 7
Grade: B+
I was close, but I did not give the Rangers enough credit for pushing the Caps to the wall, before they stormed back to take the series.

New Jersey Devils (3) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Predicted: Hurricanes in 6
Actual: Hurricanes in 7
Grade: A
I am giving myself an 'A' because the 'Canes were the underdog, although I thought they would finish off the Devils without going to Game 7.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5)
Predicted: Penguins in 7
Actual: Penguins in 6
Grade: B+
A great series, but not as close as I had expected.

Round 1 - Western Conference

San Jose Sharks (1) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8)
Predicted: Sharks in 6
Actual: Ducks in 6
Grade: F+
Not sure if that grade even exists. I did not think the Sharks would tank (wah-wah) in the First Round, however I did expect a lot from the Ducks. So it's a fail, but one with a + attached to it.

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (7)
Predicted: Blue Jackets in 7
Actual: Red Wings in 4
Grade: F-
As a counter to my F+, this is a resounding F-. I had a feeling one of the Sharks or Wings would get upset, but clearly made the wrong pick. How terrible a call was this? Well, let's see: I picked the Western Conference champions, who lost the Cup by one goal in Game 7, to lose in the First Round; and I picked the Blue Jackets to win the series, when in fact they failed to win a game. Brutal!

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. St. Louis Blues (6)
Predicted: Canucks in 4
Actual: Canucks in 4
Grade: A+
NAILED IT!!! For once in my life my optimism about the Canucks was not misplaced. Well, until the second round at least.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) vs. Calgary Flames (5)
Predicted: Blackhawks in 6
Actual: Blackhawks in 6
Grade: A
Another one dead on! Though less of an out-on-a-limb pick than a Canucks sweep. At the time, I was extremely happy with this result. Until the Canucks played the Blackhawks. Ugh.


Round 2 - Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins (1) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Predicted: Bruins in 6
Actual: Hurricanes in 7
Grade: C-
I am still not sure if I overestimated the Bruins or underestimated the Hurricanes. Either way, the 'Canes upset the Bs by taking the series in 7 games.

Washington Capitals (2) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4)
Predicted: Penguins in 6
Actual: Penguins in 7
Grade: B
This was a mind-blowingly entertaining series. I was right that the Pens would win, though I thought they would do so more handily than they did. I definitely underestimated the Capitals in this one.

Round 2 - Wetern Conference

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8)
Predicted: Red Wings in 7
Actual: Red Wings in 7
Grade: A
The at-the-time Cup champs showed resilience in overcoming the challenge from the Ducks. This was the third 7-game series of the Second Round.

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (4)
Predicted: Canucks in 5
Actual: Blackhawks in 6
Grade: F
Let's not talk about it, 'kay?

Coming soon: Part II of my playoff prediction postmortem.