Revisiting my postseason predictions: Part II

Here is Part II of my postmortem on my playoff predictions (Part I can be found here), covering my Round 3 and Stanley Cup Final picks. Again, I know this happened a long time ago, but many things prevented me from prioritizing the revisitation of my playoff picks.

As per my regular season prediction evaluations, I will use the following scale to evaluate my selections:

A - Nailed the pick exactly right
B - In the ballpark but not right on
C - A pretty misguided pick, but you can kind of understand why I made it
F - Epic fail

Round 3 - Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Predicted: Penguins in 7
Actual: Penguins in 4
Grade: C-
Yeah I picked the team right, but I thought this would be a WAY closer series than it was. This series marked the playoff coming-out party for Evgeni Malkin, who had 6 goals and 3 assists in the four games, including this hat-trick effort in Game 2:



And because that third goal was so amazing, let's watch it one more time:



Round 3 - Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (4)
Predicted: Red Wings in 6
Actual: Red Wings in 5
Grade: B
Having learned my lesson about underestimating the Blackhawks, I thought they would give Detroit a tougher time than they did. In the end the Wings were too good and too experienced to make the mistakes that cost the Canucks their Round 2 series against the 'Hawks.

Stanley Cup Final

Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Predicted: Penguins in 7
Actual: Penguins in 7
Grade: A+
I picked this before the series began, but was unable to post due to some computer issues while I was traveling. I stuck with my pick despite the Red Wings winning the first two games and appearing to have a pretty strong lock on their second straight Cup. So I give myself a little extra credit for having the option of bailing on my pick, but sticking with it and in the end getting it right on. And here is the conclusion to what was a fantastic 2009 NHL Playoffs*:



* Watching this again makes me remember how ridiculously dramatic Game 7 was! What a great playoffs all round.

We're Number 4?

Okay, I'm done all of my work for my Masters, so let's get back into some hockey after a long summer hiatus! What better way to kick it off then with some positive news, or at least a reason for optimism. Or skepticism.

Ross McKeon of Yahoo! Sports released his mid-summer Power Rankings, in which he ranks all 30 NHL teams. And guess who sits at Number 4? From McKeon's column:

4. Vancouver Canucks – You want an early Calder Trophy candidate? Remember the name Cody Hodgson, the 19-year-old center the Canucks drafted 10th overall in 2008. He’s got a great chance not only to make Vancouver’s opening-night roster, but to excel right off the bat. Oh, and don’t be surprised if Mats Sundin returns to Vancouver once he decides he’s not done yet.

Aside from his apparent inside knowledge and/or speculation about Mats Sundin, McKeon's main reason for ranking the Canucks this high seems to be Cody Hodgson. Now I'm as excited as anyone for his arrival, but I think that Canucks fans need to be cautious about expecting too much from a kid who is two years away from being able to buy a beer when the Canucks are on the road against 24 of the NHL's teams. The signs point toward Hodgson becoming a Linden-esque franchise cornerstone, but he clearly has a lot to accomplish before meeting such expectations. And expecting him to have an all-star rookie season may be bit much. If he gets 60 points I will be ecstatic about his potential.

So, not to be a downer, but I think McKeon may have overestimated the Canucks' fortunes. I think they have a decent chance to beat out Calgary for the Northwest Division crown. I do not anticipate them being better than every Western Conference team except the Chicago Blackhawks. Sorry, but the Canucks have a lot to prove before you can put them ahead of the Detroit Red Wings or even the San Jose Sharks. And I'm not certain that, as things stand, they're necessarily better than the Anaheim Ducks or the Flames.

I don't know the last time the 'Nucks would have placed this high in any kind of ranking. Certainly not since the West Coast Express era, assuming a sane person was compiling the rankings. Maybe I'm uneasy with too much preseason Canucks hype because I feel like it setting them up to fail. 20+ years as a Canucks fan has made me suspicious of claims about the greatness of a given squad. Based on the Canucks' two best results (1982 and 1994) it seems like our best moments come when no one expects them.

Penguins dance with Lord Stanley

The title of this post is a reference to the commentary of the Penguins legendary, high-octane announcer Mike Lange:



Lange has given us some gems over the years, from "Get in the fast-lane grandma, the bingo game's ready to roll!" to "He smoked him like a bad cigar!" to, on the occasion of the Pens' first Cup victory, "Lord Stanley, Lord Stanley, get me the brandy!" And he had reason to celebrate again last night, as the Penguins atoned for last year's loss to the Red Wings by taking an exciting Game 7 2-1.

It is a great story for these young Penguins (who, by the way, the announcers did not constantly refer to as "too young to know any better" - hopefully that moniker is never heard again in NHL broadcasting unless, for some reason, a Timbits Hockey team takes on the Leafs, Senators, Lightning or any other team they may have a chance against).

First of all, there is the NHL's wonderboy Sidney Crosby becoming the youngest captain to lift the Stanley Cup. And he was the main reason that the Penguins even survived the first and second rounds, carrying the team on his shoulders against the Flyers and Capitals. He led the playoffs with 15 goals and finished second to teammate Evgeni Malkin with 31 points.

Malkin emerged as a playoff force, leading the playoffs with 36 points and becoming the first Russian to capture the Conn Smythe Trophy - which, incidentally, he can place on his mantle next to the Art Ross Trophy he earns this year for leading the league in scoring in the regular season.

Malkin turns 23 this year, and Crosby will be 22 by the time the 2009-10 season starts. These guys haven't even hit their prime yet, and seem poised for many years of greatness with the Penguins.

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was excellent in Game 7, and shook the label of not being able to win the big game (hmm, I wish another French-Canadian goalie would do the same thing). Grinder Max Talbot emerged as the Stanley Cup hero, scoring both goals for the Penguins. And the Pens played a solid team game to defeat the very talented Wings.

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins, your 2009 Stanley Cup Champions.

And congratulations to the NHL's marketing department for producing this commercial, which captures some of the heartbreak of the Penguins to the Red Wings in last year's Final and somehow makes this year's victory seem all the sweeter for them:



Here's hoping they'll pull off something similar with the Canucks and Roberto Luongo this coming October, and the Canucks will proceed to knock off the Blackhawks in the Conference Final.

Game 7 Excitement

Tomorrow night Gary Bettman will hand the Stanley Cup to either Nicklas Lidstrom or Sidney Crosby, and the curtain will fall on an exciting 2008-09 NHL season. It has been a great Final (with the exception of the 5-0 rut by Detroit in Game 5) featuring some of the best and brightest stars of the hockey world: Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk et al.

Some random questions heading into Game 7:

• Will home ice advantage continue to define this series? The home team has won each of the first six games. At home, the Wings have outscored the Pens 11-2. At the Igloo, meanwhile, the Penguins hold a 10-5 edge. My feeling is that the adrenaline, passion and win-or-go-home desperation of a Game 7 trumps home ice advantage, which is a big plus for the Penguins.

• Will Sidney Crosby emerge as a force? Thus far he has been limited to 3 points (1G, 2A) in the series, while being shadowed by the Wings' Henrik Zetterberg. Without a doubt this is the biggest game of his career, and it represents a chance to carve out a legacy at this early stage of his young career.
  

• Speaking of Zetterberg, how amazing is the Wings' depth and team game that they can use him in a checking role? This is a guy who had 92 points two seasons ago, 73 this year and won the Conn Smythe Trophy last season. And Mike Babcock has enough faith in his team to stick Zetterberg on Crosby, and rely on the rest of the team to pick up the offensive slack.

• How will the goaltenders play? As mentioned, both have given up a lot of goals on the road and not many at home, which would suggest an advantage for Chris Osgood. Osgood also the advantage of experience, having already played in 128 playoff games and won three Stanley Cups (two as a starter). Fleury, on the other hand, has played just 48 playoff games (almost half of which have been this post-season) and has only last year's Final loss to draw upon.

• Will the role players decide the outcome? Hitherto unknown Justin Abelkader stepped in and scored two huge goals for the Wings in Games 1 and 2. Tyler Kennedy busted out a two point game, including scoring the game winner, in the Penguins 2-1 Game 6 win. Lesser lights such as Jordan Staal, Dan Cleary, Max Talbot and Darren Helm have all made significant contributions to their teams' success throughout the series. This game may be decided by Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, Lidstrom or Datsyuk. But don't be surprised if it's Kris Draper or Matt Cooke who emerges as the hero of the game.

All these questions will be answered in less than 36 hours. I can't wait, it should be an amazing conclusion to the season.

2009 Playoffs: Stanley Cup Finals Predictions

Travel and technology have prevented me from posting my Finals predictions. Travel, because I am in Ontario. Technology, because whenever I try to create a post, the site looks super ghetto. So here's hoping this works, but based on what I see in front of me I have no idea if it will.

Anyway, I'm not going to change my original prediction just because the Red Wings are up 2-0 so far. I will stick with the Penguins in 7, with Sidney Crosby capturing the Conn Smythe Trophy.

Both Crosby and the Pens had better start stepping it up if my predictions are to come true! Detroit has looked scarily good thus far, and is ridiculously opportunistic when it comes to taking advantage of Penguins' mistakes and/or lucky bounces.

What are your thoughts and/or predictions about the series so far?

2009 Playoffs: Round Three Predictions

Hmmm. So I might have been wrong about the Blackhawks. And the Hurricanes. Oh well, life goes on - and as a Canucks fan that usually means not having your team in the playoffs at this time of year. Here are my predictions for the Conference Finals:

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6) - Penguins in 7

Ah yes, a classic 4 vs. 6 seed match-up in the Conference Finals. But more importantly it's a Staal vs. Staal series, as brothers Jordan and Eric face each other (anyone remember the Russ vs. Geoff Courtnall/Stars vs. Canucks series in 1994?) Both these teams should scare the bejeezers out of each other. The 'Canes have overcome two great teams, including the conference champion Bruins, and have lived up to their nickename Cardiac 'Canes for their improbable ability to win last-minute or OT games in the clutch. The Pens, meanwhile, are looking like a more mature version of last year's squad that bowed out in the Stanley Cup Final. Sidney Crosby is playing unreal, while Evgeni Malkin is hit-and-miss - but when he's "hit" he is amazing. Marc-Andre Fleury looked shaky at times, but also made huge saves such as this game-changing one early in Game Seven against the Capitals:



I think Pittsburgh is the better team, but Carolina has been proving its critics wrong all playoffs and the Penguins would be very, very wise not to underestimate them like the Devils and Bruins may have been guilty of.

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (4) - Red Wings in 6

Who knows how this could play out? The 'Hawks showed a ridiculous resiliancy and ability to come back from deficits against the Canucks and the Flames. But the Red Wings are better and more experienced than either of those Northwest Division squads, and I think the Blackhawks are due for a reality check against a team will be far less likely to stunningly implode than its two earlier opponents. Still... betting against the 'Hawks feels like a risky proposition. But I'm taking the Wings and calling a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Final.

'Nucks and Pucks' preseason prediction off to a roaring start

Regular readers, all six of them, will recall that I made three sets of preseason predictions (well, only sort of "preseason" in one case): order of finish in the Eastern and Western Conferences and Conference and Cup Finals/major award winners. So far they are looking as conclusive as Thomas Dewey's victory in the 1948 Presidential election.

The Flyers, my Eastern darlings, are entrenched in 15th spot in the conference - a place in which they clearly feel comfortable after the 06-07 season. The Dallas Stars, my choice not only to win their division but also the Stanley Cup (!), are kicking around at 12th in the conference.

And the Canucks, my heart-not-head favourite to win it all this year? They're a middling 10th in the West.

Fortunately for my ego the Red Wings are in second in the West, while the Canadiens (who I predicted to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals) are tied for second in points in the East.

Things are not much better on the individual awards front. I was apparently prescient to choose Alex from the Capitals to be among the league's best in scoring - too bad I picked Alex Ovechkin and not Alex Semin, as the latter has 2.5 times as many points as the former.

Marty Turco, who I picked to win the Vezina Trophy, is not off to a hot start and was pulled in yesterday's 5-0 loss to the Devils after some fairly brutal goaltending (start watching at 32 seconds for the worst of it):



Other predictions are looking slightly better: Stars rookie Fabian Brunnstrom has four goals in 5 games, a pace which would likely easily secure him the Calder. And Ryan Kesler's solid defensive play and point-per-game average would place the Canucks forward in good standing in Selke Trophy voting - assuming he can overcome the East Coast bias that potentially robbed Evgeni Nabokov of the Vezina Trophy last year.

Ultimately prognostocation is an inexact science - just ask the now-panicking bookies who gave 150:1 odds on the Tampa Devil Rays winning the World Series. But it's still fun both to make the predictions, and to look back and laugh when they're proven horribly incorrect.

So, while there is still a lot of time for my NHL preseason predictions to come true (after all we're not even through the first month of the season), it is still entertaining to assess the non-success of my forecasts thus far. Maybe I should become a weatherman. Or a bookie.

Colin Powell Supports Canucks Stanley Cup Bid

VANCOUVER - IN A SURPRISING move yesterday, four-star American General and former US Secretary of State Colin Powell openly endorsed the Vancouver Canucks' efforts to secure the Stanley Cup in 2009. Speaking about new Canucks General Manager Mike Gillis, General Powell declared that "he is a transformational figure. He is a new generation coming onto the NHL stage."

General Powell's endorsement comes as a blow to the Detroit Red Wings and the team's GM Ken Holland. Powell has previously referred to Holland as "a dear friend" who he has known for over 25 years.

Although the Red Wings entered the NHL season as the reigning Stanley Cup champion, the team has amassed only 7 points through 5 games, good enough for a middling fifth in the Western Conference.

Powell refused to comment on whether the Canucks recent October 16 overtime victory the Red Wings factored into his decision to endorse the Vancouver club, but insiders suggest that it greatly altered his impression of Holland and the entire Red Wings organization.

The turmoil in the Red Wings organization extends beyond its mediocre 3-1-1 record, which places them behind Central Division rival St. Louis Blues. Last season the Blues finished dead last in the division, 36 points behind the Red Wings but clearly the divisional balance of power has tilted against the faltering Red Wings.

Holland's recent support for Detroit's "hockey moms" has drawn considerable criticism. While supporters say that it has successfully broadened the appeal of the Red Wings organization amongst a certain segment of the NHL public, critics argue that it has isolated hockey traditionalists who otherwise may have supported the Original Six franchise.

Holland took the high road in responding to today's news: "Well, I've always admired and respected General Powell. We're long-time friends. This doesn't come as a surprise."

Powell's endorsement is a strong boost to NHL newcomer Gillis, who has already bucked convention by naming his goaltender captain. The results of Gillis controversial and highly-criticized plan to increase his team's offence without adaquately replacing outgoing forwards have yet to be seen. Powell's support, however, has for now pushed these issues to the backburner.

Gillis' reaction to the news was predictabily enthusiastic. He declared that he was "beyond honoured and deeply humbled to have the support of General Colin Powell."

The results of the Stanley Cup competition will not be known until the conclusion of the Finals in early June 2009.

Some belated predictions for the 08-09 season

I realize that I never made some of the preseason predictions that I had intended to make. Therefore, please find my somewhat belated predictions for the 2008/09 season:

Stanley Cup Winner: Vancouver Canucks
President's Trophy: Vancouver Canucks
Art Ross Trophy: Daniel Sedin
Hart Trophy: Roberto Luongo
Vezina Trophy: Roberto Luongo
Norris Trophy: Mattias Ohlund
Lady Byng Trophy: Henrik Sedin
Selke Trophy: Ryan Kesler
Calder Trophy: Jannik Hansen

What's that? This list is horribly biased and unrealistic? Next you're going to tell me that the Blue Jays aren't going to win the World Series this year and that my stocks in Lehman Brothers aren't going to allow me to retire by 26 years old. But if you insist, I will aim for a Fox News-esque "fair and balanced" approach for this series of predictions for the current season:

Stanley Cup Finals: Dallas Stars defeat Montreal Canadiens in 6 games

Western Conference Finals: Dallas defeats Detroit Red Wings in 7 games
Eastern Conference Finals: Montreal beats Philadelphia Flyers in 6 games

President's Trophy: Detroit Red Wings

Art Ross Trophy: Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Hart Trophy: Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Vezina Trophy: Marty Turco, Dallas Stars
Norris Trophy: Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings
Lady Byng Trophy: Kyle Wellwood, Vancouver Canucks (just joking, despite his ridiculous dearth of PIM - but how do you predict this trophy anyway?)
Selke Trophy: Ryan Kesler, Vancouver Canucks (I'm sticking with this one!)
Calder Trophy: Fabian Brunnstrom, Dallas Stars
Jack Adams Trophy: I was going to say Denis Savard... so, um, how about Wayne Gretzky of the Phoenix Coyotes? It's not like he's won enough major hardware already.

First All-Star Team:
C - Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
LW - Alex Ovechkin. Washington Capitals
RW - Marian Hossa, Detroit Red Wings
D - Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings
D - Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins
G - Marty Turco, Dallas Stars