Revisiting my postseason predictions: Part I

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future." - Niels Bohr

"The groundhog is like most other prophets; it delivers its prediction and then disappears." - Bill Vaughn

These two quotations capture the spirit of this post. Firstly, that prediction is often more luck than science and thus frequently inaccurate. And secondly, unlike the groundhog, I am standing to face the music of my predictions for the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Yeah, I know the playoffs ended months ago, but it took me a while to get 'round to this. Sorry.

Part 1 will give a postmortem on the Rounds 1 and 2 predictions, and Part 2 will cover Round 3 and the Stanley Cup Final. As per my regular season prediction evaluations, I will use the following scale to evaluate my selections:

A - Nailed the pick exactly right
B - In the ballpark but not right on
C - A pretty misguided pick, but you can kind of understand why I made it
F - Epic fail

Round 1 - Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins (1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (8)
Predicted: Bruins in 5
Actual: Bruins in 4
Grade: A-
I thought the Habs would steal one, but the Bs ended the Canadiens Centennial Season on a low note.

Washington Capitals (2) vs. New York Rangers (7)
Predicted: Capital in 6
Actual: Capitals in 7
Grade: B+
I was close, but I did not give the Rangers enough credit for pushing the Caps to the wall, before they stormed back to take the series.

New Jersey Devils (3) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Predicted: Hurricanes in 6
Actual: Hurricanes in 7
Grade: A
I am giving myself an 'A' because the 'Canes were the underdog, although I thought they would finish off the Devils without going to Game 7.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5)
Predicted: Penguins in 7
Actual: Penguins in 6
Grade: B+
A great series, but not as close as I had expected.

Round 1 - Western Conference

San Jose Sharks (1) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8)
Predicted: Sharks in 6
Actual: Ducks in 6
Grade: F+
Not sure if that grade even exists. I did not think the Sharks would tank (wah-wah) in the First Round, however I did expect a lot from the Ducks. So it's a fail, but one with a + attached to it.

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (7)
Predicted: Blue Jackets in 7
Actual: Red Wings in 4
Grade: F-
As a counter to my F+, this is a resounding F-. I had a feeling one of the Sharks or Wings would get upset, but clearly made the wrong pick. How terrible a call was this? Well, let's see: I picked the Western Conference champions, who lost the Cup by one goal in Game 7, to lose in the First Round; and I picked the Blue Jackets to win the series, when in fact they failed to win a game. Brutal!

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. St. Louis Blues (6)
Predicted: Canucks in 4
Actual: Canucks in 4
Grade: A+
NAILED IT!!! For once in my life my optimism about the Canucks was not misplaced. Well, until the second round at least.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) vs. Calgary Flames (5)
Predicted: Blackhawks in 6
Actual: Blackhawks in 6
Grade: A
Another one dead on! Though less of an out-on-a-limb pick than a Canucks sweep. At the time, I was extremely happy with this result. Until the Canucks played the Blackhawks. Ugh.


Round 2 - Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins (1) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6)
Predicted: Bruins in 6
Actual: Hurricanes in 7
Grade: C-
I am still not sure if I overestimated the Bruins or underestimated the Hurricanes. Either way, the 'Canes upset the Bs by taking the series in 7 games.

Washington Capitals (2) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4)
Predicted: Penguins in 6
Actual: Penguins in 7
Grade: B
This was a mind-blowingly entertaining series. I was right that the Pens would win, though I thought they would do so more handily than they did. I definitely underestimated the Capitals in this one.

Round 2 - Wetern Conference

Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8)
Predicted: Red Wings in 7
Actual: Red Wings in 7
Grade: A
The at-the-time Cup champs showed resilience in overcoming the challenge from the Ducks. This was the third 7-game series of the Second Round.

Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (4)
Predicted: Canucks in 5
Actual: Blackhawks in 6
Grade: F
Let's not talk about it, 'kay?

Coming soon: Part II of my playoff prediction postmortem.

Revisiting my pre-season predictions - Part II

Way back in the fall I made my predictions for the 2008-09 regular season. Predictions were made for the Eastern and Western Conferences, as well as for major award winners. Now that the season is over and the hardware handed out, it is time to look back in embarrassment at my preseason predictions. This is Part I in the series.

I will rank all my predictions them on a four-letter scale:

A - Nailed the pick exactly right
B - In the ballpark but not right on
C - A pretty misguided pick, but you can kind of understand why I made it
F - Epic fail

Western Conference

1st Place
Predicted: Detroit Red Wings
Actual: San Jose Sharks
Grade: B+
Okay, so San Jose took first by 5 points, but the Red Wings still finished the season with 112 points and challenged the Sharks for the President's Trophy for much of the season.

2nd Place
Predicted: Dallas Stars
Actual: Detroit Red Wings
Grade: F-
Yes I know that F- technically doesn't exist, but I deserve it anyway. I also picked Dallas to win the Stanley Cup. Let's just not talk about it, 'kay?

3rd Place
Predicted: Calgary Flames
Actual: Vancouver Canucks
Grade: B-
Ye of little faith! Yes, I actually put aside my obvious partisanism and called the Flames to win the Northwest Division. To be fair, Calgary did appear to have the division wrapped up before falling apart down the stretch, often dressing fewer than 18 skaters due to injuries and salary cap issues. No wrong prediction pleased me more than this one!

4th Place
Predicted: San Jose Sharks
Actual: Chicago Blackhawks
Grade: C
The Sharks dominated in the regular season, but unfortunately for them the President's Trophy just ain't the same as the Stanley Cup.

5th Place
Predicted: Anaheim Ducks
Actual: Calgary Flames
Grade: C
The Ducks slipped to 8th. The Flames stumbled their way to 5th. To be fair, Anaheim was better than their record indicated.

6th place
Predicted: Chicago Blackhawks
Actual: St. Louis Blues
Grade: B-
Chicago defied my expectations by maturing faster than I had thought they would, and finished with an impressive 104 points in the regular season. Let's not talk about the playoffs. Ever.

7th Place
Predicted: Vancouver Canucks
Actual: Columbus Blue Jackets
Grade: A-
Yes, I know the 'Nucks made it to 3rd. So why I am being so self-congratulatory about this pick? Well, mainly because - as I noted in my original post - "the conventional wisdom of 99.9% of hockey experts" was that they would miss the playoffs entirely. Adam Proteau of The Hockey News had them at 14th. So the fact that I called them to make the playoffs at all is, I think, worthy of a decent grade.

8th Place
Predicted: Phoenix Coyotes
Actual: Anaheim Ducks
Grade: F
I thought the Coyotes would turn a corner this year, and for half the season it looked like they might. But then the wheels fell off, and they finished the season in 13th and twelve points behind the 8th place Ducks. Oops.

9th Place
Predicted: Columbus Blue Jackets
Actual: Minnesota Wild
Grade: D
Didn't think that CBJ had it in them to make the playoffs. But they defied my predictions by making their first ever postseason.

10th Place
Predicted: Edmonton Oilers
Actual: Nashville Predators
Grade: A
The Oilers actually finished in 11th place, but I am proud of this pick for a similar reason to my Canucks prediction - because it defied the prognostications of many hockey experts. The pre-season hype about the Oilers was that they had a great youthful core led by players such as Sam Gagner (who managed just 41 points in his second season) and that they were poised to take a big step in 08-09. These predictions, however, ignored the fact that the Oilers were pretty abysmal in 07-08 until they made a late push for the playoffs. Those kind of streaks rarely carry over into the following regular season.

11th Place
Predicted: Colorado Avalanche
Actual: Edmonton Oilers
Grade: D
Wow, I thought the Avs would be bad, but not last-in-the-conference bad. Which is exactly how bad they were, finishing a full 10 points below the 14th place LA Kings.

12th Place
Predicted: Minnesota Wild
Actual: Dallas Stars
Grade: B+
Yeah I was off by a few spots, but I was reasonably accurate in my prediction: "I feel like the Wild are in for a fall. Call it a hunch."

13th Place
Predicted: Nashville Predators
Actual: Phoenix Coyotes
Grade: C-
Never count out the Predators. While I correctly called them to miss the playoffs after four straight seasons of making it, I did not expect them to be as competitive as they were. The Preds hung in there, and finished just three points back of the 8th place Ducks.

14th Place
Predicted: St. Louis Blues
Actual: Los Angeles Kings
Grade: F
Didn't see this one coming. After finishing with just 79 points in 2007-08, good for 14th in the conference, the Blues rocketed back to legitimacy by finishing 6th in the West with 92 points. Fortunately they met their match in Round 1 of the playoffs.

15th Place
Predicted: Los Angeles Kings
Actual: Colorado Avalanche
Grade: A-
The Kings finished in 14th. Close enough.

Final Grades:

A: 1
A-: 2
B+: 2
B-: 2
C: 2
C-: 1
D: 2
F: 2
F-: 1

How sweep it is!

"WOOOOOOOOOO!!!!"

That was the sound of hundreds of thousands of Canucks fans around the globe cheering as Alex Burrows buried the game winner with just 19 seconds left in overtime.

The Canucks, for the first time in their franchise history, have swept a 7-game series. And they did it with an amazingly solid series against what was, a week ago, a red-hot Blues team. Four things particularly impressed me about the Canucks' performance against St. Louis:

1. Luongo. Obviously. 5 goals allowed on 131 shots, for a ridiculous .962 save percentage just about says it all. For those of you keeping track, that's 1.25 goals on roughly 33 per game. Bobby Lou was spectacular, even though solid team play in front of him meant that he didn't always need to be.

2. Throughout the series, even on the rare occasion that St. Louis grabbed the momentum (see Period 1, Game 3 and Period 2/OT, Game 4) the Canucks displayed incredible poise to settle themselves down and keep playing their game. Rather than get frazzled, the 'Nucks rode out the Blues momentum and then went for the jugular to shut 'em down.

3. Depth. Give GM Mike Gillis kudos, because this squad showed that it is solid from Sedin to Johnson, Ohlund to Vaananen. Obviously the top line of Burrows (3G, 0A) and the Sedins (2G, 3A for Daniel and 1G, 3A for Henrik) was awesome. But how about the fourth line, who brought energy all game every game? And playoff rookie Kyle Wellwood, who showed resiliance and brought an as-yet-unseen toughness to the rink? And what about Mason Raymond, who drew into the lineup only because Taylor Pyatt was unable to play due to personal tragedy - Raymond didn't hit the scoresheet, but he brought intensity, speed and a signature moment when he flattened noted pest/trash-talker B.J. Crombeen in Game 3? Then there is the defence. The D was excellent at taking away shooting and passing lanes, thus shutting down the Blues skilled forwards, as well as mostly keeping the St. Louis forwards from crashing the crease.

4. The Canucks special teams were amazing in the series. The powerplay went a solid 4/18 (22%), and scored all three goals in a key Game 3 road win. The penalty killers, meanwhile... well, WOW. What else can you say? The Blues had 22 chances on the PP, and only scored one goal the entire series! Those 22 chances included three lengthy two-man advantages, as well as three powerplays in the OT period of Game 4. Three cheers to the Canucks PK for its yeoman's work in the series - thank goodness they'll have a lengthy rest to ice bruises from all those blocked shots.

So, to celebrate, enjoy this clip of the winning goal, post-game celebration, post-game interviews and, of course, the end-of-series handshake: