Revisiting my pre-season predictions: Part I

Way back in the fall I made my predictions for the 2008-09 regular season. Predictions were made for the Eastern and Western Conferences, as well as for major award winners. Now that the season is over and the hardware handed out, it is time to look back in embarrassment at my preseason predictions. This is Part I in the series.

I will rank all my predictions them on a four-letter scale:

A - Nailed the pick exactly right
B - In the ballpark but not right on
C - A pretty misguided pick, but you can kind of understand why I made it
F - Epic fail

Eastern Conference

1st Place
Predicted: Philadelphia Flyers
Actual: Boston Bruins
Grade: C - Philly had a strong team, but finished 17 points behind the Bruins in 5th.

2nd Place
Predicted: Montreal Canadiens
Actual: Washington Capitals
Grade: F - Many observers expected big things from the Habs in their centenary season. I, unfortunately, was one of them. The Canadiens were a gong show from mid-season onwards, and barely made the playoffs by virtue of a tie-breaker with Florida.

3rd Place
Predicted: Washington Capitals
Actual: New Jersey Devils
Grade: B- - Washington managed to finish 2nd, bettering my expectations for them. Although I must admit that I picked them to finish 3rd only by virtue of winning their division:

"I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pens finish second to the Flyers for points - too bad the NHL's screwy division-seeding arrangement, AKA throwing the Southeast Division a frickin' bone, will deny them the second seed in the conference" ('Nucks and Pucks, September 13, 2009).

4th Place
Predicted: Pittsburgh Penguins
Actual: Pittsburgh Penguins
Grade: A- - Yes I nailed it, but see above quotation for my thoughts about the Penguins. Yes theytied for 4th, but they were nowhere close to finishing 2nd in points.

5th Place
Predicted: New Jersey Devils
Actual: Philadelphia Flyers
Grade: C+ - The Devils exceeded my expectations, winning the Atlantic Division and finishing 3rd in the conference.

6th Place
Predicted: Buffalo Sabres
Actual: Carolina Hurricanes
Grade: F - Oops.

7th Place
Predicted: New York Rangers
Actual: New York Rangers
Grade: A - The only thing preventing an A+ was that I referred to Wade Redden as "a defensive upgrade" when I should have said "useless player with a millstone of a contract."

8th Place
Predicted: Boston Bruins
Actual: Montreal Canadiens
Grade: F - So my 8th place team finished first, and my second place team finished 8th. Did not see Boston coming on so strong, but good on 'em they had a great season.

9th Place
Predicted: Ottawa Senators
Actual: Florida Panthers
Grade: A- - Yes Ottawa actually finished 11th, but the point is that I called them to miss the playoffs and continue their freefall away from respectability. And I think I nailed that one pretty much dead on!

10th Place
Predicted: Tampa Bay Lightning
Actual: Buffalo Sabres
Grade: C - Tampa was worse than I thought they would be. What can ya do?

11th Place
Predicted: Carolina Hurricanes
Actual: Ottawa Senators
Grade: F - Carolina not only made the playoffs as the number 6 seed, they shocked the hockey world by making it all the way to the Conference Finals.

12th Place
Predicted: Florida Panthers
Actual: Toronto Maple Leafs
Grade: C- - Florida surprised by making a strong push for the playoffs, ultimately falling just short.

13th Place
Predicted: New York Islanders
Actual: Atlanta Thrashers
Grade: C+ - The Isles finished last in the league.

14th Place
Predicted: Toronto Maple Leafs
Actual: Tampa Bay Lightning
Grade: C+ - Toronto was a little better than I expected. Just a little.

15th Place
Predicted: Atlanta Thrashers
Actual: New York Islanders
Grade: B- - Atlanta finished 13th. Trying to predict the bottom of the standings is a painful and inexact science.

Final Grades:

A: 1
A-: 2
B-: 2
C+: 3
C: 2
C-: 1
F: 4

Canucks draft Jordan Schroeder. . . and Luongo signing an extension?

Well, GM Mike Gillis might have pulled off another steal in the First Round of the NHL Entry Draft. Hot on the heels of last year's 10th overall selection of Cody Hodgson, the Canucks plucked Jordan Schroeder - who many experts considered to be a Top 10 pick - 22nd overall.

Schroeder comes to the Canucks from the hockey factory that is the University of Minnesota. At UM he demonstrated considerable offensive prowess, and would have probably been a Top 5 pick if two factors had not worked against him: he had a mediocre World Junior Championships this year, and he is, um, on the smaller side for NHLers at 5'8". Still for an 18 year-old 5'8" kid he weighs an impressive 178 pounds - in a couple of years this guy is going to be a tank.

Also, size doesn't really matter in the NHL. Right Kyle Wellwood?

I am very happy with this pick. The Canucks were expected to go after an offensive defenceman, but when a talent like Schroeder falls into your range you have to jump on the opportunity. Along with Hodgson (and hopefully Henrik Sedin), he will ensure the Canucks are strong in the centre ice position for years to come.

You can read a full scouting report on Schroeder here. My friend Dan pointed out that the University of Minnesota's top three centreman are all now property of the Canucks (and at least two of them hail from MN). Odd, especially (as pointed out by the TSN crew) given the hostility between the Minnesota Wild and the Canucks.

In a positive symbolic act, none other than Roberto Luongo announced the Canucks' pick. Not only was this a grand slam with the hometown Montreal crowd, it was also a good sign that the Canucks captain will sign an extension to keep in the Green and Blue for years to come. There a a variety of options on the table, but here's hoping that the $6.8 million per season for six years comes to pass. Lou is under contract through next season, meaning that this deal would keep him here for seven more years. $6.8 million is a reasonable cap hit compared to other elite NHL goalies, and is much more palatable than the rumoured $8 million per season.

If you missed the draft... well congratulations, because that's four hours of my life I will never get back. I kid - it was reasonably entertaining. However, if you missed it, here is the the selection of Schroeder:

What makes a Canucks fan a Canucks fan?

Puck the Media has posted a quite hilarious NHL Fan Glossary (H/T Puck Daddy for the link). Here is what they have to say about Canucks fans:

"Canucks, Vancouver. Is kind of embarrassed that the team is basically a different way of saying Canadiens. Thinks Steve Moore had it coming. Owns every one of the teams 27 different jerseys."

Okay, "had it coming" might be a tad strong, though I was quite upset by Moore's previous hit on Naslund. And, personally, I'm not at all embarrassed that Canuck means Canadian! It means we don't have to resort to putting the Canada flag on our jerseys like a certain Alberta team I can think of (anyone else think the Flames come off as a bunch of college kids travelling around Europe who try to be "cool" by rocking the maple leaf on their backpacks?).

And yeah, the team has had a veritable colour prism of jerseys over the years. All of which make appearances in the stands at games. Bonus points if you own the salmon-red third jersey from the mid-90s. Extra bonus points if you actually wear it outside the house.

Unfortunately the entry on the Canucks appears to be the second smallest after the Maple Leafs ("Cherishes the team’s most recent Stanley Cup win in “The Love Guru”"). Surely there is more that makes up the identity of Canucks fans? Here are my suggestions for further entries (some serious, some humorous):

• Still has mixed feelings about the Orca.

• Still talks about the '94 Stanley Cup run like we actually won the Cup.

• Will always hate Mike Keenan for coaching the Rangers in '94, for the way he treated Trevor Linden, and for recently coaching the Calgary Flames. And for just being Mike Keenan.
  

• Conveniently forgets that Linden is actually from Alberta and grew up a Flames fan.

• When speaking with Leafs fans will counter the "Well the Canucks have never won a Stanley Cup" argument by noting that Toronto has not won one since before the Canucks existed as an NHL franchise.

• Has thought "we have a chance this year!" every season since 2001, only to be bitterly disappointed come April/May.

• Loves Stan Smyl even if he/she never saw him play.

• Regularly contemplates what could have been in the 2003-04 season if Todd Bertuzzi hadn't, well, you know...
  

• Knows that the 7th Man banner at GM Place was really, really lame and avoids talking about it all costs.

• Is happy that Matt Cooke won a Cup, even if it wasn't with the Canucks.
  

• When complaining about Roberto Luongo having an off game, forgets that his predecessors included Felix Potvin, Dan Cloutier, Bob Essensa, Peter Skudra, Garth Snow, Arturs Irbe and Alex Auld. Upon remembering this fact, kisses the ground and thanks his/her lucky stars.

Do you have suggestions for the list? Any defining Canucks' fan characteristics you care to share? use the comments section to add suggestions to the list.

Sign the Sedins!

Will the Sedins return to the Canucks? This is undoubtedly the biggest question facing the Canucks' GM Mike Gillis right now, and one that will shape all his other off-season decisions. The Twins want to stay in Vancouver, but Gillis is rightly concerned that meeting their salary demands (believed to be about $6.5 million per season) will hobble the team's ability to maneuver under a salary cap that is likely to drop in the next season or two.

I have a feeling that the Sedins will end up settling on a contract with the Canucks. Is it worth it for both of them to leave a city they and their families like and a team that is better than most of the teams rumoured as potential destinations (Toronto, Montreal, LA) for an extra $500,000 a season? Obviously that's a lot of money, but they'll still likely get something in the range of $6 million so it's not a huge loss of income. From the Canucks perspective, and extra $1 million of cap space can go a long way.

The Sedins are excellent players, and I think they are in the $6 million range. A lot of people underestimate them, but consider how they stack up statistically against other stars:

With 82 points each, the Sedins tied with Mike Cammalleri of the Flames for 13th in NHL scoring. That means that they finished higher in scoring than players such as Rick Nash, Eric Staal, Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg, Dany Heatley, Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews and Vincent Lecavalier. This is not to say that the Sedins are necessarily better than these players, but that statistically they stack up favourably against some very impressive competition.

Goal scoring is not exactly the Canucks' forte, but that's no fault of Daniel. He had a respectable 31 goals, good enough to tie with a host of other players for 26th in league scoring. Yes, he could and should be higher - but who will pick up that slack if the Canucks let him and his brother walk? Plus, do you really think Alex Burrows will come anywhere close to replicating his 28-goal season playing without the Sedins? Just ask Anson Carter how difficult it is to replicate a career year sans les freres Sedin.

We all know Henrik is an assist machine. With 60 helpers, he finished 8th in the league behind players such as Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk and Joe Thornton. The previous season he finished 4th with 61 assists. But did you know that Daniel was hot on his brother's tail with 51 assists, placing him 14th in the league? These guys make players around them better. Period.

In the playoffs the Sedins continued their clutch play, each scoring 10 points in 10 games. Yes, they could have done more. But so could have Sundin, Luongo, Kesler, Burrows, etc. I thought the Sedins were among the team's best players in the playoffs, and stepped up their physical game in order to get on the scoresheet.

Losing the Sedins would leave a huge hole in the Canucks forward corps. Who would step up to the top line? 19-year old rookie Cody Hodgson? Ryan Kesler? Pavol Demitra? There aren't a lot of good internal options when it comes to filling two of the top three first-line sports. Unless Gillis has a couple aces up his sleeve in trade or free-agent form (Lecavalier? Heatley? Gaborik?), losing the Sedins would be crippling.

What are your thoughts about the Sedins? Should the Canucks keep them? Let them walk? If they stay, what are they worth?

Penguins dance with Lord Stanley

The title of this post is a reference to the commentary of the Penguins legendary, high-octane announcer Mike Lange:



Lange has given us some gems over the years, from "Get in the fast-lane grandma, the bingo game's ready to roll!" to "He smoked him like a bad cigar!" to, on the occasion of the Pens' first Cup victory, "Lord Stanley, Lord Stanley, get me the brandy!" And he had reason to celebrate again last night, as the Penguins atoned for last year's loss to the Red Wings by taking an exciting Game 7 2-1.

It is a great story for these young Penguins (who, by the way, the announcers did not constantly refer to as "too young to know any better" - hopefully that moniker is never heard again in NHL broadcasting unless, for some reason, a Timbits Hockey team takes on the Leafs, Senators, Lightning or any other team they may have a chance against).

First of all, there is the NHL's wonderboy Sidney Crosby becoming the youngest captain to lift the Stanley Cup. And he was the main reason that the Penguins even survived the first and second rounds, carrying the team on his shoulders against the Flyers and Capitals. He led the playoffs with 15 goals and finished second to teammate Evgeni Malkin with 31 points.

Malkin emerged as a playoff force, leading the playoffs with 36 points and becoming the first Russian to capture the Conn Smythe Trophy - which, incidentally, he can place on his mantle next to the Art Ross Trophy he earns this year for leading the league in scoring in the regular season.

Malkin turns 23 this year, and Crosby will be 22 by the time the 2009-10 season starts. These guys haven't even hit their prime yet, and seem poised for many years of greatness with the Penguins.

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was excellent in Game 7, and shook the label of not being able to win the big game (hmm, I wish another French-Canadian goalie would do the same thing). Grinder Max Talbot emerged as the Stanley Cup hero, scoring both goals for the Penguins. And the Pens played a solid team game to defeat the very talented Wings.

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins, your 2009 Stanley Cup Champions.

And congratulations to the NHL's marketing department for producing this commercial, which captures some of the heartbreak of the Penguins to the Red Wings in last year's Final and somehow makes this year's victory seem all the sweeter for them:



Here's hoping they'll pull off something similar with the Canucks and Roberto Luongo this coming October, and the Canucks will proceed to knock off the Blackhawks in the Conference Final.

Game 7 Excitement

Tomorrow night Gary Bettman will hand the Stanley Cup to either Nicklas Lidstrom or Sidney Crosby, and the curtain will fall on an exciting 2008-09 NHL season. It has been a great Final (with the exception of the 5-0 rut by Detroit in Game 5) featuring some of the best and brightest stars of the hockey world: Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk et al.

Some random questions heading into Game 7:

• Will home ice advantage continue to define this series? The home team has won each of the first six games. At home, the Wings have outscored the Pens 11-2. At the Igloo, meanwhile, the Penguins hold a 10-5 edge. My feeling is that the adrenaline, passion and win-or-go-home desperation of a Game 7 trumps home ice advantage, which is a big plus for the Penguins.

• Will Sidney Crosby emerge as a force? Thus far he has been limited to 3 points (1G, 2A) in the series, while being shadowed by the Wings' Henrik Zetterberg. Without a doubt this is the biggest game of his career, and it represents a chance to carve out a legacy at this early stage of his young career.
  

• Speaking of Zetterberg, how amazing is the Wings' depth and team game that they can use him in a checking role? This is a guy who had 92 points two seasons ago, 73 this year and won the Conn Smythe Trophy last season. And Mike Babcock has enough faith in his team to stick Zetterberg on Crosby, and rely on the rest of the team to pick up the offensive slack.

• How will the goaltenders play? As mentioned, both have given up a lot of goals on the road and not many at home, which would suggest an advantage for Chris Osgood. Osgood also the advantage of experience, having already played in 128 playoff games and won three Stanley Cups (two as a starter). Fleury, on the other hand, has played just 48 playoff games (almost half of which have been this post-season) and has only last year's Final loss to draw upon.

• Will the role players decide the outcome? Hitherto unknown Justin Abelkader stepped in and scored two huge goals for the Wings in Games 1 and 2. Tyler Kennedy busted out a two point game, including scoring the game winner, in the Penguins 2-1 Game 6 win. Lesser lights such as Jordan Staal, Dan Cleary, Max Talbot and Darren Helm have all made significant contributions to their teams' success throughout the series. This game may be decided by Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, Lidstrom or Datsyuk. But don't be surprised if it's Kris Draper or Matt Cooke who emerges as the hero of the game.

All these questions will be answered in less than 36 hours. I can't wait, it should be an amazing conclusion to the season.